Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Greeks 40% poorer than in 2008


Greeks are nearly 40 percent poorer than 5 years ago, with disposable incomes down by a third since the country entered into recession. Financial struggles linger after the 2008 crisis,and the government austerity measures haven't yielded promised growth.
Gross disposable incomes fell 29.5 percent between the second quarters of 2008 and 2013, the ELSTAT statistics service said on Tuesday in a report. Adding in cumulative consumer price inflation over the same period takes the decline close to 40 percent.
Workers' compensation has fallen 34 percent since the second quarter of 2009, according to the ELSTAT report. The government, under strict pressure to reduce the ballooning budget deficit, has cut social benefits by 26 percent. 
Stability has not returned to Greece, an economic recovery has been slow, if not elusive. The IMF estimates the Greek economy will contract 4 percent in 2013 before showing signs of recovery in 2014. 

The economic suffering has made saving nearly impossible for average citizens, with the households putting away 8.7 percent less in the second quarter, 2 percent year-on-year. Domestic consumption has been squeezed out by austerity measures.
Greece’s crisis, which has haunted the economy for 6 years, has forced it to dismantle and privatize its state assets to meet its austerity targets under the international bailout plan.
Greece has received over $315 billion (240 billion euros) since 2010 from Troika lenders, but still is buried in debt- which exceeds 160 percent of GDP. Greece’s inability to ‘exit’ recession has put it at odds with Troika lenders, which are moving towards approving a third bailout for 2014, which is very unpopular with EU taxpayers, who feel they being hit by the burden of their southern neighbors debt. 
Unemployment has hit record highs - and nearly 1.37 million are jobless, the highest rate among any EU country. 55.1 percent of people under 25 are without a job. 

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Greece Considering Confiscation Of Private Assets


The last time we opined on the possibility of a Cyprus-style "bail-in" in Greece, which is essentially a legally-mandated confiscation of private sector assets held hostage by the local financial system, until such time as the balance sheet of said financial system is viable, we were joking. Well, not really joking.
But not even we thought that a banking sector "bail in", in which unsecured bank liabilities, which include bonds and of course deposits, are used as a matched source of extinguishment of non-performing bad debt "assets" could spread to the broader economy, and specifically to unencumbered private sector assets. Alas, this is precisely what Greece, which is desperately to delay the inevitable and announce it needs not only a third but fourth bailout, appears keen on doing.
As Kathimerini reports, the Greek Labor and Social Insurance Ministry is "seriously considering drastic measures in order to obtain the social security contributions owed by enterprises and to avoid having to slash pensions and benefits." What drastic measures? "The ministry is planning to force companies to pay up or face having their assets seized, so that the 14 billion euros of contributions due can be recouped."
After all, it's only "fair."
Kathimerini is kind enough to layout the clear-cut problems with this plan which will further crush any potential rebound in the Greek economy:
While this amount – equal to 8 percent of the country’s gross domestic product – may be easy to calculate on paper, it is virtually impossible to collect even if the state attempts to confiscate all the real estate properties of debtors and the debts of third parties to them.

The ministry has been forced to consider asset repossessions as a result of the very poor state of social security funds. The fiscal gap expected at the end of the year from social security will at best be equal to 1.06 billion euros. This also constitutes a bad start for next year, too, when the budget will also provide for a reduction in state subsidies to social security funds by 1.8 billion euros.
Aside from the obvious, namely that this "plan" will be merely the latest disaster to hit the long-suffering Greek economy, now caught in the worst depression in history, and where greedy and corrupt politicians will promptly "confiscate" whatever benefits there are to have been made from this confiscation plan (however instead of accusing corruption all blame will be once again fall on (f)austerity), the greater problem is that any entrepreneurial confidence that Greece just may be a sound place to do business, has just gone out of the window as nobody will know if they are safe from arbitrary persecution, and subject to a wholesale asset confiscation at any moment in time.
However, none of the above gives us more confidence that things in Greece are about to go from horrifying to nightmarish, than the following FT story: "John Paulson and a clutch of bullish US hedge funds are leading a charge into Greek banks, confident that Greece, long seen as the weakest economy of the eurozone periphery, is on the turn."
Right. A 360-degree turn.
The good news: at least the Greek government will have a lot of "greater fool" assets to pick and choose from when the confiscation hammer hits.